AI experts adjust predictions by 48 years – We are approaching the endgame!

AI experts have revised their predictions, and we’re in the endgame now. In just one year, they dropped their predictions by as much as 48 years. Human cognitive biases are showing as the trend of exponential decay continues. High-level machine intelligence could arrive much sooner than expected, and the reality is coming, whether people are emotionally ready or not. AGI is coming sooner than you think. 🤖 #EndgameAI

### AI Experts Revise Predictions by 48 YEARS – We’re in the endgame now! 🤔

#### **Summary:**
The predictions of AI researchers have undergone a significant revision, reducing the expected timeline for high-level machine intelligence (hlmi) and full automation of labor. The aggregate forecast in 2023 shows a 13-year drop in forecasts for hlmi compared to 2060, and a staggering 48-year shift for full automation of labor down from 2125 since 2022. This drastic decline in expected timelines reflects the fragility of human cognitive biases, highlighting exponential decay in human predictions. The observations in the paper indicate that AGI (artificial general intelligence) may arrive sooner than commonly predicted. The data also proves that human emotions and fear of disruptions are driving the emotional comfort of people with the advent of AI.

#### **Revision of Predictions** 👇

The paper on predictions about AI researchers’ viewpoints reveals a remarkable shift in anticipated timelines for pivotal milestones such as high-level machine intelligence (hlmi) and full automation of labor. The aggregated forecast for hlmi in 2023 predicts a 50% likelihood by 2047, down by 13 years from the 2060 forecast in 2022. Similarly, the forecast for full automation of labor has been revised down by an astonishing 48 years compared to 2022. The trend of drastically reduced timelines within a year indicates a rapid and exponential decay in human predictions regarding AI milestones.

| Year | Full Automation of Labor |
| —— | ———————— |
| 2022 | 2125 |
| 2023 | 2077 |

#### **Exponential Decay** ⬇

The exponential decay in human predictions is evident from the survey data, where the predictions for significant AI milestones have rapidly and significantly reduced over the past year. For instance, the predicted timelines for achieving high-level machine intelligence and full automation of labor are now substantially earlier than previously anticipated, highlighting the swift pace of advancements in AI.

#### **AI Advancements and Human Cognitive Biases** 🧠

The study showcases the impact of human cognitive biases on AI predictions, indicating a change in the tide of anticipated advancements. The overwhelming shift in expected timelines for essential AI milestones reflects a growing understanding of the fragility of human perspectives when it comes to forecasting AI developments.

### **Implications and Future Trends** 💡

The revisions in AI predictions and the exponential decay in anticipated timelines pose essential implications for the future trends in AI research and development. The accelerated pace of advancements suggests that AI, particularly AGI, may arrive much sooner than conventionally estimated, debunking the emotional comfort-based predictions of human experts.

#### **Moore’s Law and AI Progression** 🔗

The analysis correlates the exponential progress of AI with Moore’s Law, emphasizing a significant stride towards high-level machine intelligence (hlmi) and full automation of labor. This accelerated pace aligns with the growing capabilities of AI models, showcasing a rapid shift towards substantial advancements in the AI landscape.

| Trends | AI Progression |
| —————– | ———————————- |
| Moore’s Law | Doubles computational capability |
| AI Models | Rapid advancements and capabilities|

In conclusion, the study underscores the urgency of acknowledging the impending advancements in AI despite emotional resistance and fear. The guidance from Moore’s Law and the exponential decay in predictions necessitates a proactive and realistic approach to embrace the upcoming transformation fueled by AI technology.

#### **Final Remarks and Predictive Insights** ✨

The observations of accelerated AI advancements call for a reevaluation of predictive insights and emotional biases that influence forecasts in the field. As AI races towards significant milestones, it becomes imperative to grasp the evolving landscape and adapt to the challenges and opportunities entwined with the rapid progression of artificial intelligence.

Thank you for reading! 🚀